Office: 165 Pretoria Avenue, Ottawa ON. K1S 1X1
Phone: 613.238.2801
Fax: 613.238.4583
email: roberthof@royallepage.ca
Office: 165 Pretoria Avenue, Ottawa ON. K1S 1X1
Phone: 613.238.2801
Fax: 613.238.4583
email: roberthof@royallepage.ca
Gemma Riley-Laurin and Kevin Laurin (The Laurin Team), is an Ottawa based husband and wife mortgage team with the Dominion Lending Centres Family Mortgage Group, servicing the needs of residential mortgages and commercial/business leasing for the Ottawa Region.
With more than 25 years of combined experience in the financial industry, The Laurin Team is able to offer a mortgage solution or a business leasing that suits your needs and is the best financial option available for your home or business expansion in Canada's Capital area.
Financing is a critical personal and business decision
The Laurin Team offers professional and personal services for residential mortgages and commercial leasing with the aim of taking the complexities and hassles out of the financing process and simplifying your life.
With access to numerous lending institutions in the Ottawa Region and nationwide, including big banks, credit unions and trust companies, The Laurin Team is familiar with a vast array of available mortgage products ranging from first-time homebuyer programs to financing for the self-employed to new Canadian immigrants to financing for those with bruised credit.
The Laurin Team ensures all clients having the access and ability in gaining the knowledge and information to make an informed lending decision.
The LaurinTeam is team of trusted professionals in the Ottawa Region and member of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP).
To reach Gemma
900- 275 Slater Street
K1P 5H9 Ottawa, Ontario
(613) 845-0786
Dominion Lending Centres Family Mortgage Group is a mortgage brokerage and leasing company associated with Dominion Lending Centres servicing the Ottawa Region. Dominion Lending Centres is a National mortgage company that works with 90 banks, credit unions and trust companies providing residential and commerical mortgages and business leasing service
October 24, 2018
As was universally expected, the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council hiked overnight rates this morning by 25 basis points taking the benchmark yield to 1-3/4%. This marked the fifth rate increase since the current tightening phase began in July 2017 (see chart below). The central bank stated it would return the overnight rate to a neutral stance, dropping the word ‘gradually’ that was used to describe the upward progression in yields since this process began. Market watchers will certainly note this omission. For the first time in years, the Bank has acknowledged it expects to remove monetary stimulus from the economy entirely.
So what is the neutral overnight rate? According to today’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), “the neutral nominal policy rate is defined as the real rate consistent with output sustainably at its potential level and inflation equal to target, on an ongoing basis, plus 2% for the inflation target. It is a medium- to long-term equilibrium concept.” For Canada, the neutral rate is estimated to be between 2.5% and 3.5%, which implies that at a minimum, three more 25 basis point rate hikes are likely over the next year or so.
The Bank of Canada emphasized that the global economic outlook remains solid and that the U.S. economy is particularly robust, but is expected to moderate as U.S.-China trade tensions weigh on growth and commodity prices. The new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) eliminated a good deal of uncertainty for Canadian exports, which will reignite business confidence and investment. Business investment and exports have been of concern in recent quarters, and the Bank is now looking towards a resurgence in these sectors, augmented by the recently-approved liquid natural gas project in British Columbia.
A continuing concern, however, is the decline in Canadian oil prices. Western Canada Select (WCS), a local blend that represents about half of Canada’s crude oil exports, has declined about 60% since July as global oil prices have risen (see chart below). WCS plunged below US$20 a barrel last week posting the biggest discount to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on record in Bloomberg data back to 2008. WCS generally tracks heavy oil from Canada, which typically trades at a discount to WTI because of quality issues as well as the cost of transport from Alberta to the refineries in the U.S.
Canadian pipelines are already filled to the brim. The inability of the Canadian oil industry to build a major pipeline from Alberta to either the U.S. or the Pacific Ocean is increasingly dragging down domestic oil prices. Oil-by-rail shipments to the U.S. are at an all-time high, but this is an expensive and potentially unsafe option and precludes Canadian oil exports to China and Japan.
An even broader concern is the impact of higher interest rates on debt-laden consumers. The Bank is well aware of the risks, as the MPR cited that “consumption is projected to grow at a healthy pace, although the pace of spending gradually slows in response to rising interest rates… Higher mortgage rates and the changes to mortgage guidelines are affecting the dynamics of housing activity. Housing resales responded quickly to the new mortgage guidelines, and the level of resale activity is expected to continue on a lower trajectory than before the changes. New home construction is shifting toward smaller units, although stronger population growth is estimated to raise fundamental demand for housing.”
Household credit growth has slowed, and the share of new mortgages with high loan-to-income ratios has fallen. The ratio of household debt to income has leveled off and is expected to edge downward..
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Welcome to the January 2019 issue of the News & Rate Advisor.
Source: Bank of Canada
Source: Bank of Canada
Source: Stats Canada – preliminary figures
Source: Bank of Canada
Source: CREA – Most Recent Month Reported
Source: CREA – Most Recent Month Reported
Welcome to the December issue of the News & Rate Advisor.
Source: Bank of Canada
Source: Bank of Canada
Source: Stats Canada – preliminary figures
Source: Bank of Canada
Source: CREA – Most Recent Month Reported
Source: CREA – Most Recent Month Reported |
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| Current Discount Mortgage Rates for Oct 2018 | Conventional1 | High Ratio2 | |
| Variable Rate | 2.65% | 2.60% | |
| 2 Year | 3.19% | 3.19% | |
| 4 Year | 3.64% | 3.59% | |
| 5 Year | 3.34% | 3.29% | |
| Prime Rate | 3.70% | 3.70% | |
|
Note: * Rates subject to change and OAC. (1) Conventional – Uninsured, (2) High Ratio – Insured |
|||
| Canadian Qualifying Rate | Oct 2018 |
| Rate | 5.34% |
| Current Posted Mortgage Rates | Oct 2018 | Oct 2017 | Oct 2016 |
| 1 Year | 3.49% | 3.24% | 3.14% |
| 3 Year | 4.29% | 3.64% | 3.39% |
| 5 Year | 5.34% | 4.89% | 4.64% |
Source: Bank of Canada
| Nationwide Building Permits | Aug 2018 | Aug 2017 | Aug 2016 |
| Residential | $5,310,449,000 | $4,887,519,000 | $4,516,206,000 |
| Commercial | $3,801,749,000 | $2,684,389,000 | $2,856,502,000 |
| Total | $9,112,198,000 | $7,571,908,000 | $7,372,708,000 |
Source: Stats Canada – preliminary figures
| Current Bank of Canada Rate & Prime Rates | Oct 2018 | Oct 2017 | Oct 2016 |
| Bank Rate | 1.75% | 1.25% | 0.75% |
| Prime Rate | 3.70% | 3.20% | 2.70% |
Source: Bank of Canada
| Average House Prices by City | Aug 2018 | Aug 2017 | Aug 2016 |
| Yellowknife | $417,548 | $447,334 | $388,119 |
| Vancouver | $1,083,400 | $1,029,700 | $833,065 |
| Victoria | $692,700 | $620,700 | $570,196 |
| Edmonton | $330,000 | $373,438 | $369,956 |
| Calgary | $426,800 | $436,500 | $456,663 |
| Saskatoon | $293,900 | $316,700 | $349,716 |
| Regina | $277,600 | $313,000 | $309,634 |
| Toronto | $764,800 | $755,400 | $710,410 |
| Hamilton-Burlington | $578,000 | $554,507 | $496,894 |
| Ottawa-Carleton | $391,100 | $365,200 | $369,055 |
| Quebec City | $283,054 | $266,072 | $279,780 |
| Montreal | $345,600 | $326,400 | $358,935 |
| Fredericton | $187,714 | $166,135 | $187,411 |
| Saint John | $185,934 | $172,803 | $165,661 |
| Halifax-Dartmouth | $295,413 | $284,037 | $281,977 |
| Winnipeg | $302,100 | $297,897 | $278,718 |
Source: CREA – Most Recent Month Reported
| Average House Prices by Province | Aug 2018 | Aug 2017 | Aug 2016 |
| National | $475,591 | $472,247 | $456,722 |
| Yukon | $382,801 | $311,149 | $341,597 |
| Northwest Territories | $417,548 | $447,334 | $388,119 |
| British Columbia | $669,452 | $678,152 | $569,281 |
| Alberta | $384,200 | $392,359 | $390,615 |
| Saskatchewan | $281,088 | $293,995 | $298,001 |
| Manitoba | $292,584 | $287,794 | $273,387 |
| Ontario | $553,285 | $518,613 | $518,586 |
| Quebec | $312,866 | $298,158 | $289,656 |
| New Brunswick | $177,644 | $161,160 | $168,737 |
| Prince Edward Island | $212,654 | $195,270 | $195,925 |
| Nova Scotia | $228,070 | $223,738 | $209,989 |
| Newfoundland | $261,107 | $258,198 | $265,521 |
Source: CREA – Most Recent Month Reported
| Current Discount Mortgage Rates for Sep 2018 | Conventional1 | High Ratio2 | |
| Variable Rate | 3.00% | 2.70% | |
| 2 Year | 3.39% | 3.24% | |
| 4 Year | 3.64% | 3.64% | |
| 5 Year | 3.74% | 3.39% | |
| Prime Rate | 3.70% | 3.70% | |
|
Note: * Rates subject to change and OAC. (1) Conventional – Uninsured, (2) High Ratio – Insured |
|||
| Canadian Qualifying Rate | Sep 2018 |
| Rate | 5.34% |
| Current Posted Mortgage Rates | Sep 2018 | Sep 2017 | Sep 2016 |
| 1 Year | 3.49% | 3.24% | 3.14% |
| 3 Year | 4.30% | 3.64% | 3.39% |
| 5 Year | 5.34% | 4.89% | 4.64% |
Source: Bank of Canada
| Nationwide Building Permits | Jul 2018 | Jul 2017 | Jul 2016 |
| Residential | $5,999,154,000 | $5,013,737,000 | $4,087,851,000 |
| Commercial | $3,625,648,000 | $2,965,814,000 | $2,554,845,000 |
| Total | $9,624,802,000 | $7,979,551,000 | $6,642,696,000 |
Source: Stats Canada – preliminary figures
| Current Bank of Canada Rate & Prime Rates | Sep 2018 | Sep 2017 | Sep 2016 |
| Bank Rate | 1.75% | 1.25% | 0.75% |
| Prime Rate | 3.70% | 3.20% | 2.70% |
Source: Bank of Canada
| Average House Prices by City | Jul 2018 | Jul 2017 | Jul 2016 |
| Yellowknife | $377,110 | $366,991 | $388,352 |
| Vancouver | $1,087,500 | $1,029,786 | $1,007,687 |
| Victoria | $672,800 | $644,510 | $580,555 |
| Edmonton | $334,400 | $383,624 | $384,504 |
| Calgary | $430,000 | $458,480 | $469,325 |
| Saskatoon | $297,200 | $325,718 | $346,879 |
| Regina | $281,100 | $319,595 | $314,714 |
| Toronto | $768,400 | $746,218 | $709,825 |
| Hamilton-Burlington | $555,459 | $536,595 | $491,360 |
| Ottawa-Carleton | $390,100 | $391,119 | $374,431 |
| Quebec City | $268,897 | $268,884 | $266,578 |
| Montreal | $345,000 | $378,401 | $349,218 |
| Fredericton | $197,103 | $187,119 | $181,833 |
| Saint John | $186,976 | $179,048 | $168,266 |
| Halifax-Dartmouth | $293,638 | $299,847 | $292,511 |
| Winnipeg | $296,735 | $294,216 | $282,684 |
Source: CREA – Most Recent Month Reported
| Average House Prices by Province | Jul 2018 | Jul 2017 | Jul 2016 |
| National | $481,429 | $478,696 | $480,743 |
| Yukon | $377,110 | $376,909 | $344,863 |
| Northwest Territories | $433,489 | $366,991 | $388,352 |
| British Columbia | $695,660 | $698,718 | $663,411 |
| Alberta | $385,156 | $396,946 | $403,666 |
| Saskatchewan | $291,435 | $291,399 | $303,414 |
| Manitoba | $286,071 | $283,978 | $275,914 |
| Ontario | $557,533 | $517,379 | $517,831 |
| Quebec | $309,862 | $303,083 | $284,662 |
| New Brunswick | $184,118 | $173,797 | $164,961 |
| Prince Edward Island | $190,834 | $192,605 | $180,427 |
| Nova Scotia | $235,239 | $228,399 | $221,689 |
| Newfoundland | $254,533 | $244,653 | $252,846 |
Source: CREA – Most Recent Month Reported
| Current Discount Mortgage Rates for Aug 2018 | Conventional1 | High Ratio2 | |
| Variable Rate | 3.00% | 3.14% | |
| 2 Year | 3.39% | 3.39% | |
| 4 Year | 3.64% | 3.64% | |
| 5 Year | 3.74% | 3.44% | |
| Prime Rate | 3.70% | 3.70% | |
|
Note: * Rates subject to change and OAC. (1) Conventional – Uninsured, (2) High Ratio – Insured |
|||
| Canadian Qualifying Rate | Aug 2018 |
| Rate | 5.34% |
| Current Posted Mortgage Rates | Aug 2018 | Aug 2017 | Aug 2016 |
| 1 Year | 3.49% | 3.14% | 3.14% |
| 3 Year | 4.30% | 3.39% | 3.39% |
| 5 Year | 5.34% | 4.84% | 4.74% |
Source: Bank of Canada
| Nationwide Building Permits | Jun 2018 | Jun 2017 | Jun 2016 |
| Residential | $6,271,516,000 | $5,122,069,000 | $4,108,128,000 |
| Commercial | $3,826,013,000 | $3,088,589,000 | $2,313,366,000 |
| Total | $10,097,529,000 | $8,210,658,000 | $6,421,494,000 |
Source: Stats Canada – preliminary figures
| Current Bank of Canada Rate & Prime Rates | Aug 2018 | Aug 2017 | Aug 2016 |
| Bank Rate | 1.75% | 1.00% | 0.50% |
| Prime Rate | 3.70% | 2.95% | 2.70% |
Source: Bank of Canada
| Average House Prices by City | Jun 2018 | Jun 2017 | Jun 2016 |
| Yellowknife | $485,985 | $414,505 | $380,284 |
| Vancouver | $1,093,600 | $1,053,655 | $1,026,207 |
| Victoria | $675,800 | $674,952 | $587,908 |
| Edmonton | $335,100 | $393,212 | $378,045 |
| Calgary | $431,300 | $483,106 | $466,717 |
| Saskatoon | $297,600 | $338,709 | $334,529 |
| Regina | $279,700 | $294,991 | $321,726 |
| Toronto | $772,100 | $793,915 | $746,546 |
| Hamilton-Burlington | $549,537 | $560,113 | $513,971 |
| Ottawa-Carleton | $389,200 | $410,032 | $378,389 |
| Quebec City | $288,643 | $277,041 | $273,869 |
| Montreal | $344,800 | $373,780 | $353,535 |
| Fredericton | $203,414 | $194,571 | $189,239 |
| Saint John | $196,323 | $188,119 | $179,633 |
| Halifax-Dartmouth | $308,761 | $290,008 | $290,421 |
| Winnipeg | $312,173 | $302,900 | $294,619 |
Source: CREA – Most Recent Month Reported
| Average House Prices by Province | Jun 2018 | Jun 2017 | Jun 2016 |
| National | $495,797 | $504,458 | $503,301 |
| Yukon | $377,400 | $380,580 | $351,768 |
| Northwest Territories | $485,985 | $414,505 | $380,284 |
| British Columbia | $716,259 | $725,704 | $694,925 |
| Alberta | $402,354 | $412,358 | $397,269 |
| Saskatchewan | $294,199 | $285,811 | $297,837 |
| Manitoba | $302,490 | $292,791 | $284,798 |
| Ontario | $573,396 | $547,402 | $544,009 |
| Quebec | $313,372 | $299,827 | $287,637 |
| New Brunswick | $191,808 | $177,807 | $170,044 |
| Prince Edward Island | $204,462 | $219,235 | $192,115 |
| Nova Scotia | $245,472 | $240,776 | $226,272 |
| Newfoundland | $255,989 | $258,235 | $270,664 |
Source: CREA – Most Recent Month Reported
| Current Discount Mortgage Rates for Jul 2018 | Conventional1 | High Ratio2 | |
| Variable Rate | 2.49% | 2.65% | |
| 2 Year | 3.29% | 3.29% | |
| 4 Year | 3.04% | 3.64% | |
| 5 Year | 3.24% | 3.74% | |
| Prime Rate | 3.70% | 3.70% | |
|
Note: * Rates subject to change and OAC. (1) Conventional – Uninsured, (2) High Ratio – Insured |
|||
| Canadian Qualifying Rate | Jul 2018 |
| Rate | 5.34% |
| Current Posted Mortgage Rates | Jul 2018 | Jul 2017 | Jul 2016 |
| 1 Year | 3.49% | 3.14% | 3.14% |
| 3 Year | 4.30% | 3.39% | 3.39% |
| 5 Year | 5.34% | 4.64% | 4.74% |
Source: Bank of Canada
| Nationwide Building Permits | May 2018 | May 2017 | May 2016 |
| Residential | $6,982,187,000 | $5,096,203,000 | $4,327,110,000 |
| Commercial | $3,132,370,000 | $2,768,114,000 | $2,451,001,000 |
| Total | $10,114,557,000 | $7,864,317,000 | $6,778,111,000 |
Source: Stats Canada – preliminary figures
| Current Bank of Canada Rate & Prime Rates | Jul 2018 | Jul 2017 | Jul 2016 |
| Bank Rate | 1.75% | 0.75% | 0.50% |
| Prime Rate | 3.70% | 2.95% | 2.70% |
Source: Bank of Canada
| Average House Prices by City | May 2018 | May 2017 | May 2016 |
| Yellowknife | $431,863 | $410,549 | $439,610 |
| Vancouver | $1,094,000 | $1,110,376 | $1,055,495 |
| Victoria | $671,900 | $674,237 | $585,994 |
| Edmonton | $335,400 | $379,018 | $382,695 |
| Calgary | $431,500 | $485,444 | $476,886 |
| Saskatoon | $296,500 | $349,411 | $338,153 |
| Regina | $276,500 | $326,770 | $326,656 |
| Toronto | $772,400 | $863,910 | $751,908 |
| Hamilton-Burlington | $590,273 | $627,688 | $497,792 |
| Ottawa-Carleton | $386,300 | $406,092 | $384,212 |
| Quebec City | $273,607 | $266,086 | $266,269 |
| Montreal | $343,800 | $368,558 | $354,533 |
| Fredericton | $169,554 | $196,876 | $208,115 |
| Saint John | $195,449 | $187,519 | $165,762 |
| Halifax-Dartmouth | $311,249 | $316,035 | $294,493 |
| Winnipeg | $307,320 | $302,546 | $290,063 |
Source: CREA – Most Recent Month Reported
| Average House Prices by Province | May 2018 | May 2017 | May 2016 |
| National | $496,084 | $530,304 | $509,460 |
| Yukon | $385,702 | $352,372 | $329,993 |
| Northwest Territories | $431,863 | $410,549 | $439,610 |
| British Columbia | $739,699 | $752,514 | $722,146 |
| Alberta | $395,032 | $412,382 | $402,751 |
| Saskatchewan | $297,640 | $302,720 | $297,303 |
| Manitoba | $300,327 | $294,159 | $283,058 |
| Ontario | $566,433 | $598,433 | $547,860 |
| Quebec | $312,823 | $299,542 | $285,171 |
| New Brunswick | $178,222 | $179,384 | $180,839 |
| Prince Edward Island | $221,638 | $187,752 | $172,581 |
| Nova Scotia | $255,340 | $249,518 | $232,597 |
| Newfoundland | $253,107 | $258,297 | $246,848 |
Source: CREA – Most Recent Month Reported